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Global warming has increased global economic inequality.

Noah S Diffenbaugh1,2, Marshall Burke3,4,5

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Global warming has significantly increased economic inequality between nations. The study shows climate change has reduced economic output in poorer countries, widening the gap with wealthier nations.

Keywords:
CMIP5climate change attributioneconomic inequalityglobal warming

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Area of Science:

  • Climate Science
  • Economics
  • Development Studies

Background:

  • Economic inequality is a critical barrier to equitable development.
  • Understanding the impact of global warming on economic disparities is essential.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the influence of anthropogenic climate forcing on historical economic output and inequality.
  • To quantify the effect of global warming on country-level economic growth and GDP.

Main Methods:

  • Combining counterfactual historical temperature trajectories from global climate models.
  • Utilizing empirical evidence on temperature fluctuations and economic growth.
  • Generating probabilistic country-level estimates of climate change impacts on GDP.

Main Results:

  • Anthropogenic climate forcing has very likely increased economic inequality between countries.
  • Per capita GDP in the poorest deciles has been reduced by 17-31%.
  • Global warming has likely slowed the decrease in between-country inequality over the past 50 years.

Conclusions:

  • Global warming disproportionately harms poorer countries, lowering their per capita GDP.
  • The parabolic relationship between temperature and economic growth drives these disparities.
  • Wealthy nations' energy consumption has harmed many poor countries economically.