The normal tissue complication probability model-based approach considering uncertainties for the selective use of...

To predict the probability of radiation-induced liver toxicity (RILT) and implement the normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model-based approach considering confidence intervals (CIs) to select patients for new treatment techniques, such as proton beam therapy, based on a certain NTCP reduction (ΔNTCP) threshold for primary liver cancer patients.

Common Toxicity Criteria for Adverse Events (CTCAE) grade ≥2 RILT was scored. The Lyman NTCP models predicting the probability of CTCAE grade ≥2 RILT as a function of the fraction-size adjusted mean liver dose (MLD), using reference fraction size = 2 Gy/fraction and α/β ratio = 2 Gy, were fitted using the maximum likelihood method. At certain combinations of MLDs, ΔNTCP with a CI was evaluated by the delta method.

Of the 239 patients, the incidence of CTCAE grade ≥2 RILT was 55% (46% in the Child-Pugh (CP)-A vs. 81% in the CP-B/C, p < 0.001). Among 180 CP-A patients, 40% who had viral hepatitis infections experienced toxicity vs. 32% in the nonhepatitis subgroup. The MLD was 18 Gy in the toxicity group vs. 16.1 Gy in the nontoxicity group (p = 0.002). The estimated NTCP model parameters specific to the patient subgroups and the ΔNTCP with CI assuming a particular CP classification and viral hepatitis infection status were considerably different which possible changed treatment decision.

Patients with CP-A and viral hepatitis infection or CP-B/C cirrhosis had greater susceptibility to CTCAE grade ≥2 RILT. The estimated NTCP and ΔNTCP for individual patients along with a consideration of uncertainties improve the reliability of the NTCP model-based approach.