Measured Canadian oil sands CO₂ emissions are higher than estimates made using internationally recommended methods

The oil and gas (O&G) sector represents a large source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally. However, estimates of O&G emissions rely upon bottom-up approaches, and are rarely evaluated through atmospheric measurements. Here, we use aircraft measurements over the Canadian oil sands (OS) to derive the first top-down, measurement-based determination of the their annual CO₂ emissions and intensities. The results indicate that CO₂ emission intensities for OS facilities are 13-123% larger than those estimated using publically available data. This leads to 64% higher annual GHG emissions from surface mining operations, and 30% higher overall OS GHG emissions (17 Mt) compared to that reported by industry, despite emissions reporting which uses the most up to date and recommended bottom-up approaches. Given the similarity in bottom-up reporting methods across the entire O&G sector, these results suggest that O&G CO₂ emissions inventory data may be more uncertain than previously considered.