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Published on: February 14, 2022
Total cholesterol variability and risk of atrial fibrillation: A nationwide population-based cohort study
Eun Roh1, Hye Soo Chung2, Ji Sung Lee3
1Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, Korea University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
Insights
High total cholesterol (TC) variability, measured in various ways, is linked to a greater risk of developing atrial fibrillation (AF). This finding highlights cholesterol variability as a potential predictor for AF in adults.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Epidemiology
- Biostatistics
Background:
- Long-term variability in cardiometabolic risk factors is implicated in cardiovascular disease and mortality.
- The specific impact of total cholesterol (TC) variability on incident atrial fibrillation (AF) remains underexplored.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the association between visit-to-visit TC variability and the risk of incident AF.
- To determine if TC variability is an independent risk factor for AF.
Main Methods:
- Utilized the Korean National Health Insurance Service-NHIS-HEALS database, including 160,165 Korean adults.
- Assessed TC variability using coefficients of variance (TC-CV), standard deviation (TC-SD), and variability independent of the mean (TC-VIM).
- Employed Kaplan-Meier analysis and multivariate Cox proportional hazard models, adjusting for confounders over a median follow-up of 8.4 years.
Main Results:
- Higher quartiles of TC variability were associated with a decreased disease-free probability for AF.
- Multivariate analysis revealed a significant increase in AF risk with the highest TC variability quartile (HR 1.15, 95% CI 1.05-1.25 for TC-CV).
- Consistent associations were observed across different measures of TC variability (TC-SD, TC-VIM) and in subgroup analyses.
Conclusions:
- This study provides the first evidence linking high total cholesterol variability to an elevated risk of incident atrial fibrillation.
- TC variability may serve as a novel risk marker for predicting AF development.
Background:
Long-term variability of cardiometabolic risk factors have been suggested as the risk factors for cardiovascular disease and mortality. However, the effect of long-term variability of total cholesterol (TC) on incident atrial fibrillation (AF) has not been examined.
Methods And Findings:
We explored whether visit-to-visit TC variability are associated with the risk of incident AF in 160,165 Korean adults, using the population-based Korean National Health Insurance Service-Health Screening Cohort (NHIS-HEALS) database, over a median duration of 8.4 years. TC variability was measured as coefficients of variance (TC-CV), standard deviation (TC-SD), and variability independent of the mean (TC-VIM). Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated a decreased disease-free probability in the highest quartile group of TC variability compared to that in the other groups. In the multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis, the risk of AF increased significantly in the highest quartile group of TC variability. After multivariate adjustment for confounding variables including mean TC levels, the hazard ratio for incident AF was 1.15 (95% confidence interval 1.05-1.25; P = 0.0035) when comparing the highest with the lowest TC variability quartile (TC-CV). These relationships were consistent with TC variability defined using TC-SD or TC-VIM. Subgroup analyses, including age, sex, body mass index, and cardiometabolic disorders, showed similar results.
Conclusions:
The present study is the first to demonstrate that high TC variability was associated with an increased risk of AF.
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