Integrating ecosystem services flows into water security simulations in water scarce areas: Present and future

Water resources are indispensable resources for human survival. Researchers have used different methods to evaluate regional water security situations to ensure sustainable development. However, existing water security assessment models focus on the current status of water security in a static state and do not introduce flow characteristics of water resources into regional water security assessments. On the other hand, the quality of water resources should be reflected in not only current water security situations but also change trends of water security. Therefore, this paper attempts to integrate ecosystem service flows into a water security simulation using a simplified service path attribution networks (SPANs) model. Simultaneously, by simulating future scenarios and comparing future and current water security statuses, this paper systematically evaluates regional water security status and provides water security management and control suggestions that meet the requirements of regional development. The results show that water security in Henan Province and Shandong Province is lacking, and water resource management and control measures need to be strengthened to improve the water security in these areas. The water security assessment framework established in this paper not only reasonably assesses the status of water security but also provides a development model that meets the needs of the study area through a multiple scenario analysis. This study provides a scientific basis for government departments to formulate water management policies.