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Evidence that curtailing proactive policing can reduce major crime
Christopher M Sullivan1, Zachary P O'Keeffe2
1Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, 70803, USA. csullivan@lsu.edu.
Aggressively enforcing minor laws may increase serious crime. A study found that when the New York Police Department reduced proactive policing, major crime reports decreased, challenging traditional enforcement strategies.
Area of Science:
- Criminology
- Sociology
- Public Policy
Background:
- Governments utilize police to prevent crime, but the effectiveness of aggressive low-level enforcement on serious crime rates is debated.
- Citizen compliance with laws is influenced by police presence and enforcement strategies, creating an endogeneity problem for causal analysis.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the relationship between proactive policing and serious crime rates.
- To address the endogeneity challenge in analyzing the causal impact of policing strategies on crime.
Main Methods:
- Examined a political event that led to a halt in proactive policing by the New York Police Department (NYPD) in late 2014 and early 2015.
- Analyzed several years of unique data from the NYPD, focusing on civilian complaints of major crimes.
Main Results:
- A significant decrease in civilian complaints of major crimes (burglary, felony assault, grand larceny) was observed during and immediately after the reduction in proactive policing.
- The findings indicate a positive relationship between proactive policing and reports of major crime.
Conclusions:
- The study challenges conventional wisdom, suggesting that aggressive enforcement of minor violations may inadvertently incite more severe criminal acts.
- Results imply that proactive policing strategies may not effectively reduce, and could potentially increase, serious crime rates.
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