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The risk elicitation puzzle.

Andreas Pedroni1,2, Renato Frey3,4, Adrian Bruhin5

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This summary is machine-generated.

Risk preferences are not consistently measured across different methods. This suggests that individual risk preferences may be constructed during the elicitation process, not stably captured.

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Area of Science:

  • Behavioral economics
  • Decision science
  • Cognitive psychology

Background:

  • Measuring risk preference is crucial in various fields.
  • Existing research indicates variability in risk preference measurements.
  • The validity of using a single behavioral elicitation method (EM) is questioned.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To examine the consistency of risk preferences across multiple elicitation methods.
  • To determine if a single EM provides a valid measure of an individual's risk preference.
  • To investigate factors influencing the consistency of risk preference measurements.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized six distinct elicitation methods (EMs) to assess risk preferences.
  • Analyzed data from 1,507 healthy participants.
  • Examined consistency on absolute, rank, and cumulative prospect theory (CPT) model parameter scales.

Main Results:

  • Observed risk preferences were inconsistent across the six EMs.
  • Inconsistency was evident on absolute, rank, and CPT parameter scales.
  • Participants did not consistently employ the same decision strategies across different EMs.

Conclusions:

  • The findings challenge the assumption that different EMs stably capture an individual's risk preference.
  • Risk preferences may be constructed during the elicitation process rather than being pre-existing stable traits.
  • Varying cognitive processes can lead to different elicited risk preferences, highlighting methodological influences.