Simultaneous patient presentation for endovascular thrombectomy in acute ischemic stroke

Increased demand for endovascular thrombectomy has increased the likelihood of simultaneous patient presentation leading to competing demand for time-critical treatment that could adversely impact patient outcomes. We aimed to quantify the occurrence of simultaneous patient presentation at different patient volumes.

Empirical distributions for time of patient presentation and case duration were used to probabilistically generate arrival time and case duration for a set annual patient volume, ranging from 1 to 500 cases per year, for 16 000 independent trials at each volume. Time series were generated for each trial to represent the number of cases being performed at each minute of the year. Time series were used to calculate daily thrombectomy demand, annual concurrent demand, and hourly excess demand.

The patient volumes at which at least one annual occurrence of concurrent demand by two patients was 50% and 97.5% likely were 45 and 101, respectively. The volumes at which at least one annual occurrence of concurrent demand by three patients was 50% and 97.5% likely were 216 and 387, respectively. There was dramatic variation in the occurrence of excess demand by two or more patients throughout the day.

The occurrence of simultaneous presentation by multiple patients for endovascular thrombectomy varies with annual patient volume and time of day. Understanding these trends and the associated patient impact can inform intelligent strategies at regional and national levels for optimizing patient care within real-world financial and operational constraints.