Factors influencing carbon dioxide emissions in Iran's provinces with emphasis on spatial linkages

Current economic policy planning places much emphasis on balancing development and environmental protection. Hence, it is important to determine the drivers of environment pollution from the theoretical, scientific, and policymaking aspects in the context of continuous economic growth. This paper investigates the factors affecting per capita CO₂ emissions in 30 provinces in Iran from 2009 to 2014 with emphasis on spatial spillover effects using the Spatial Durbin Model. The findings show that per capita CO₂ emissions are positively and significantly affected by per capita GDP, industrialization, and urbanization but negatively affected by changes in population. The results of the spatial section of the model indicate that both the more and the less-polluted provinces tend to cluster together, indicating positive spatial dependence for CO₂ emissions in the provinces. Also, the spatial spillover of per capita GDP and the growth of urbanization have a negative and significant effect on per capita CO₂ emissions in the provinces, while the spatial effect of changes in population is significant but positive. In other words, the economic development and rise in urbanization in one province are the results of changes in pollution levels in neighboring provinces.