Markov-chain-inspired search for MH370.

Area of Science:

• Oceanography
• Aerospace Engineering
• Statistics

Background:

• Flight MH370 disappeared on March 8, 2014, in the southeastern Indian Ocean.
• The last known position was along the Inmarsat 7th ping arc after losing contact.
• Marine debris has been found, offering clues to the aircraft's final location.

Purpose of the Study:

• To probabilistically describe the drift of marine debris from flight MH370.
• To constrain the potential crash site of flight MH370 using drift modeling.
• To refine the search area for the missing aircraft.

Main Methods:

• Constructed Markov-chain models based on discretized motion of surface drifting buoys.
• Utilized global historical data banks of satellite-tracked buoys.
• Applied spectral analysis, Bayesian estimation, and most probable path computations.

Main Results:

• The models successfully described marine debris drift patterns.
• Constrained the probable crash site to the Inmarsat arc.
• Identified a specific location near 25°S on the Inmarsat arc as the likely crash site.

Conclusions:

• Markov-chain models are effective tools for analyzing marine debris drift.
• The study provides a refined estimate for the flight MH370 crash site.
• This research aids in understanding oceanic drift phenomena and locating submerged aircraft.