Peste des petits ruminants in China: Spatial risk analysis.

Area of Science:

• Veterinary Epidemiology
• Disease Ecology
• Animal Health Surveillance

Background:

• Peste des petites ruminants (PPR) is a highly contagious viral disease affecting small ruminants.
• Understanding the spatio-temporal distribution and risk factors of PPR is crucial for effective control.
• Previous studies have highlighted the impact of environmental factors on PPRV (Peste des Petits Ruminants Virus) transmission.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the spatio-temporal patterns of PPR outbreaks in China between 2013 and 2018.
• To identify high-risk areas and time periods for PPR outbreaks.
• To determine the key environmental predictors associated with PPRV occurrence.

Main Methods:

• Spatio-temporal cluster analysis was employed to detect significant aggregations of PPR outbreaks.
• Maximum entropy ecological niche modeling (using presence-only data) was utilized to map high-risk PPR outbreak areas.
• Statistical analysis was performed to identify significant environmental predictors.

Main Results:

• A total of 294 PPR outbreak cases were recorded from November 2013 to November 2018.
• Three statistically significant spatio-temporal clusters of PPR outbreaks were identified.
• The precipitation of the driest month emerged as the most significant predictor for PPRV occurrence.

Conclusions:

• PPR outbreaks in China exhibit distinct spatio-temporal clustering.
• Environmental factors, particularly precipitation, play a critical role in the epidemiology of PPR.
• The findings provide valuable insights for targeted surveillance and control strategies for PPR in China.