The Coevolution Effect as a Driver of Spillover

Global habitat fragmentation is associated with the emergence of infectious diseases of wildlife origins in human populations. Despite this well-accepted narrative, the underlying mechanisms driving this association remain unclear. We introduce a nuanced hypothesis, the 'coevolution effect'. The central concept is that the subdivision of host populations which occurs with habitat fragmentation causes localized coevolution of hosts, obligate parasites, and pathogens which act as 'coevolutionary engines' within each fragment, accelerating pathogen diversification, and increasing pathogen diversity across the landscape. When combined with a mechanism to exit a fragment (e.g., mosquitoes), pathogen variants will spill over into human communities. Through this combined ecoevolutionary approach we may be able to understand the fine-scale mechanisms that drive disease emergence in the Anthropocene.