The Coevolution Effect as a Driver of Spillover.

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Evolutionary Biology
• Epidemiology

Background:

• Global habitat fragmentation is linked to the emergence of wildlife diseases in humans.
• The precise mechanisms driving this association are not fully understood.

Purpose of the Study:

• To propose and explain the 'coevolution effect' hypothesis for disease emergence.
• To elucidate the fine-scale ecoevolutionary mechanisms driving pathogen spillover.

Main Methods:

• Conceptual hypothesis development.
• Ecoevolutionary framework integration.
• Analysis of host-parasite-pathogen dynamics in fragmented landscapes.

Main Results:

• Habitat fragmentation causes localized host population subdivision.
• Subdivision promotes coevolutionary processes within fragments, acting as 'coevolutionary engines'.
• Accelerated pathogen diversification and increased landscape-level pathogen diversity result.

Conclusions:

• The 'coevolution effect' offers a mechanistic explanation for disease emergence linked to habitat fragmentation.
• Understanding these ecoevolutionary dynamics is crucial for predicting and mitigating future pandemics.
• An integrated ecoevolutionary approach is vital for studying disease emergence in the Anthropocene.