[Association between resting heart rate trajectory pattern and risk of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases]

Objective: To examine whether the long-term resting heart rate (RHR) pattern can predict the risk of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases (CVDs). Methods: This prospective cohort study included 63 040 participants who took part in the health examination in 2006 and one of the health examinations on 2008 or 2010 and were free of myocardial infarction, stroke, arrhythmia, cancer and not treated with β-recepter blocker. The outcomes were the first occurrence of myocardial infarction and stroke during the follow up ended on December 31, 2015. RHRs were measured in 2006, 2008, and 2010. We used latent mixture modeling SAS Proc procedure to identify RHR trajectories. We identified 4 distinct RHR trajectory patterns based on the data derived from 2006 and on the pattern change during 2006 to 2010 (low-stable, moderate-stable, moderate-increasing, elevated-decreasing). Collected the general clinical data of the patients. Cox regression model was used to determine the association between RHR trajectory patterns and the risk of CVDs during follow up. Hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using Cox regression modeling. Results: There were statistical significance among the 4 distinct RHR trajectory patterns on the following variables: age, gender, smoking status, drinking status, physical activity, education status, history of use antihypertensive drugs, history of hypertension,history of diabetes, body mass index, triglycerides, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, fasting blood glucose, and the level of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (all P<0.01). The moderate-increasing pattern experienced the highest risk of developing stroke and CVDs among all 4 patterns. The cumulative incidence of cerebral infarction, cerebral hemorrhage and CVDs in the order of low-stable trajectory, moderate-stable trajectory and moderate-increasing trajectory. The cumulative incidences of cerebral infarction, cerebral hemorrhage and CVDs in elevated-decreasing trajectory group were significantly lower than those in moderate-increasing trajectory group, but higher than those in moderate-stable trajectory group. Compared to the low-stable pattern, adjusted HR was 1.3 (95%CI 1.0-1.6) for the moderate-increasing pattern after adjustment for potential confounders. Conclusion: Our study finds that individuals with moderate-increasing RHR trajectory pattern are associated with higher risk of cardiovascular and CVDs.