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On the role of different age groups during pertussis epidemics in California, 2010 and 2014
A S Mahmud1, M Lipsitch1, E Goldstein1
1Department of Epidemiology,Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics,Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health,677 Huntington Ave.,Boston, MA 02115,USA.
Insights
Older adolescents increasingly drove pertussis (whooping cough) outbreaks in California after acellular vaccine introduction. Booster pertussis vaccination for this age group may curb future epidemics.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Infectious Disease Transmission
- Vaccinology
Background:
- Pertussis (whooping cough) outbreaks pose a public health concern.
- Understanding age-specific transmission dynamics is crucial for effective control strategies.
- The impact of acellular pertussis vaccines on transmission patterns across different age groups requires further investigation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the roles of different age groups in propagating pertussis outbreaks.
- To analyze temporal changes in these roles following the introduction of acellular pertussis vaccines.
- To identify key age demographics for targeted intervention during pertussis epidemics.
Main Methods:
- Utilized the relative risk (RR) statistic to assess the proportion of cases in different age groups before and after epidemic peaks.
- Analyzed data from the 2010 and 2014 pertussis epidemics in California.
- Compared transmission roles across various age strata, including children and adolescents.
Main Results:
- In the 2010-11 epidemic, transmission roles were relatively weak across age groups, with minor peaks in younger adolescents.
- The 2014 epidemic demonstrated a significant role for older adolescents (14-19 years) in pertussis transmission (RR 1.83 for 14-15 years).
- A temporal trend showed an increasing contribution of older adolescents to transmission over time since acellular vaccine introduction.
Conclusions:
- Older adolescents have become increasingly important in propagating pertussis outbreaks.
- Current vaccination strategies may need enhancement to address transmission by older adolescents.
- Booster pertussis vaccination for older adolescents is recommended to mitigate future epidemics.
Abstract:
There is limited information on the roles of different age groups in propagating pertussis outbreaks, and the temporal changes in those roles since the introduction of acellular pertussis vaccines. The relative roles of different age groups in propagating the 2010 and the 2014 pertussis epidemics in California were evaluated using the relative risk (RR) statistic that measures the change in the group's proportion among all detected cases before vs. after the epidemic peak. For the 2010-11 epidemic, evidence for a predominant transmission age group was weak, with the largest RR estimates being 1.26 (95% CI 1.08-1.46) (aged 11-13 years); 1.19 (1.01-1.4) (aged 9-10 years); 1.17 (0.86-1.59) (aged 14-15 years); 1.12 (0.86-1.46) (aged 16-19 years) and 1.1 (0.89-1.36) (aged 7-8 years). The 2014 epidemic showed a strong signal of the role of older adolescents, with the highest RR estimate being in those aged 14-15 years (RR = 1.83, 1.61-2.07), followed by adolescents aged 16-19 years (RR = 1.41, 1.24-1.61) and 11-13 years (RR = 1.26, 1.12-1.41), with lower RR estimates in other age groups. As the time following introduction of acellular pertussis vaccines in California progressed, older adolescents played an increasing role in transmission during the major pertussis outbreaks. Booster pertussis vaccination for older adolescents with vaccines effective against pertussis transmission should be considered with the aim of mitigating future pertussis epidemics in the community.
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