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Updated: Jan 25, 2026

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Caries Progression Rates Revisited: A Systematic Review.

R Hummel1,2, N A E Akveld1, J J M Bruers1,3

  • 11 Department of Social Dentistry, Academic Centre for Dentistry Amsterdam (ACTA), University of Amsterdam and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.

Journal of Dental Research
|May 10, 2019
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Dental caries progression rates in children and adolescents are predictable and depend on severity. Understanding these rates, measured by decayed, missing, and filled surfaces (DMFS) and teeth (DMFT), aids in predicting future caries increments.

Keywords:
DMF indexadolescentchildepidemiologyincidencelongitudinal studies

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Area of Science:

  • Oral Health
  • Epidemiology
  • Pediatric Dentistry

Background:

  • Dental caries progression exhibits predictable rates influenced by population severity.
  • Quantifying these rates is crucial for forecasting future caries development.
  • Previous research has not comprehensively synthesized caries progression data in Western children and adolescents.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To systematically review and analyze caries progression rates in the primary and permanent dentition of children and adolescents in Western populations.
  • To quantify caries incidence rates and increments in decayed, missing, and filled surfaces (DMFS) and decayed, missing, and filled teeth (DMFT).
  • To explore factors influencing caries progression rates through meta-regression analysis.

Main Methods:

  • Systematic literature search of multiple databases (MEDLINE-PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, Cochrane Library).
  • Inclusion criteria: studies with at least two full-mouth dental caries examinations, minimum 3-year follow-up, first examination post-1974, second before age 22, dentine caries assessment (d3/D3), and reporting dmfs/DMFS, dmft/DMFT, or caries-free status.
  • Systematic review, meta-analysis of caries incidence rate in permanent dentition, and multivariate meta-regression analyses were performed.

Main Results:

  • 43 studies (56,376 participants) were included in the systematic review, and 32 studies (39,429 participants) in meta-analyses.
  • Annual decline in caries-free children in permanent dentition ranged from 0.8% to 10.2%.
  • Annual increments ranged from 0.07 to 1.77 DMFS and 0.06 to 0.73 DMFT. Pooled caries incidence rate was 0.11 per person-year at risk.
  • Meta-regression indicated study methodologies influenced pooled rates and increments.

Conclusions:

  • Caries incidence rates show promise for predicting future caries increments in populations.
  • Study methodologies significantly impact pooled caries incidence rates and increments.
  • Findings should inform the planning and evaluation of oral health care services for children and adolescents.