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Global alcohol exposure between 1990 and 2017 and forecasts until 2030: a modelling study.
Jakob Manthey1, Kevin D Shield2, Margaret Rylett3
1Institute of Clinical Psychology and Psychotherapy, TU Dresden, Dresden, Germany.
Lancet (London, England)
|May 12, 2019
Summary
Global alcohol consumption is rising, with per-capita intake increasing and abstinence rates declining. Projections indicate these trends will continue, jeopardizing global health goals for reducing harmful alcohol use.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Substance Abuse Research
Background:
- Alcohol consumption is a significant global risk factor for disease burden.
- Accurate data on alcohol exposure are vital for monitoring non-communicable disease targets.
- This study estimates key alcohol exposure indicators across 189 countries from 1990-2017, with forecasts to 2030.
Observation:
- Global adult per-capita alcohol consumption rose from 5.9L in 1990 to 6.5L in 2017, projected to reach 7.6L by 2030.
- The prevalence of lifetime alcohol abstinence decreased globally from 46% in 1990 to 43% in 2017.
- Current alcohol drinking prevalence increased from 45% in 1990 to 47% in 2017, with heavy episodic drinking rising to 20% in 2017.
Findings:
- Adult per-capita alcohol consumption increased globally between 1990 and 2017.
- Lifetime abstinence prevalence declined, while current drinking prevalence increased during the study period.
- Forecasts indicate continued increases in consumption and current drinking, alongside decreases in abstinence, by 2030.
Implications:
- Current trends suggest global targets for reducing harmful alcohol use are unlikely to be met.
- Effective and cost-effective policy interventions are necessary to mitigate rising alcohol exposure.
- Urgent implementation of public health policies is recommended to curb alcohol-related harm.
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