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Estimates of the future burden of cancer attributable to infections in Canada

Karena D Volesky1, Mariam El-Zein2, Eduardo L Franco1

  • 1Gerald Bronfman Department of Oncology, Division of Cancer Epidemiology, McGill University, Montréal, Québec, Canada; Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montréal, Québec, Canada.

Preventive Medicine
|May 13, 2019
PubMed

Insights

Reducing infections like hepatitis B, C, H. pylori, and HPV can prevent thousands of future cancers in Canada. Increased HPV vaccination and infection control show significant potential for cancer burden reduction.

Area of Science:

  • Public Health
  • Epidemiology
  • Infectious Disease Prevention

Background:

  • In 2015, over 7000 incident cancers in Canada were linked to infections.
  • Key infection-causing agents include hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV), Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori), and human papillomavirus (HPV).
  • Reducing the prevalence of these infections can lower the future burden of associated cancers.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To model the future impact of reducing HBV, HCV, and H. pylori prevalence on cancer incidence.
  • To assess the effect of varying school-based HPV vaccination coverage levels on cancer prevention.
  • To estimate the total number of cancers preventable by 2042 through these interventions.

Main Methods:

  • Modeled counterfactual reductions in HBV, HCV, and H. pylori prevalence in 2018.
  • Assumed a 15-year latency period to estimate cancer incidence from 2033 onwards.
  • Calculated HPV-attributable cancers based on pre-2018 vaccination coverage and 2018 counterfactuals.

Main Results:

  • A 50% reduction in HBV, HCV, and H. pylori prevalence could prevent an estimated 10,585 cancers by 2042.
  • Current HPV vaccination coverage could prevent 3977 anogenital and 1073 head and neck cancers by 2042.
  • Achieving 80% HPV vaccination coverage in both genders could prevent an additional 311 cancers.

Conclusions:

  • Significant cancer prevention is achievable through targeted reductions in infection prevalence.
  • Enhanced HPV vaccination programs are crucial for preventing anogenital and head and neck cancers.
  • A combined strategy of infection control and high HPV vaccination coverage could prevent nearly 16,000 cancers by 2042.
Keywords:
CanadaCancerHelicobacter pyloriHepatitis virusesInfectionPapillomavirus infectionsPotential impact fractionPrevention

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