Geographic distribution and time trends of esophageal cancer in Brazil from 2005 to 2015

The purpose of the present study was to investigate the geographical distribution and time trends of the incidence and lethality of esophageal cancer (EC) in Brazil. The present study conducted an ecological study of EC using records from January 2005 to December 2015 in the Health Informatics Department of the Brazilian Ministry of Health (DATASUS) registry. In addition to demographical data on the population, EC incidence and lethality rates were estimated from hospitalizations and in-hospital mortalities and were adjusted by total available hospital beds. The adjusted EC rates per 100,000 increased from 9.1 in 2005 to 12.1 in 2015. The prevalence among males increased from 69 to 78%, while the female rates remained stable over the same period. Although EC was the most common in South and Southeast Brazil, the rates increased proportionately more in the other regions of the country, especially among males. Geographical analysis revealed higher rates of EC in more urbanized areas, with a coast-to-inland gradient. While rates increased in people older than 50 years, they decreased among people below this age. However, the lethality rates remained stable and high during the study period, overlapping with hospital admission rates. The recent increasing trend in the EC incidence, with shifts from the south towards the north and from more urbanized towards rural areas, suggests that environmental factors are crucial in EC pathogenesis. The concentration of EC in South Brazil may reflect the presence of major environmental factors in association with a possible genetic predisposition. The unchanging high mortality associated with EC in the rapidly aging population suggests that EC will continue to impose a significant social and economic burden in the future.