Non-dipping blood pressure pattern and new-onset diabetes in a 21-year follow-up

Purpose: Non-dipping blood pressure (BP) pattern has been associated with metabolic changes and cardiovascular events. With regard of diabetes, studies are scarce. Our aim was to investigate if there is an association between changes in dipping patterns and incidence of diabetes. Materials and methods: A 24-h ambulatory BP measurement was recorded in addition to other laboratory measurements, and a questionnaire and physical examination were carried out in the baseline study and after 21-year follow-up among a study population (n = 449) consisting of randomly selected middle-aged Finnish females and males without diabetes. Results: 128 (28.5%) developed diabetes during the follow-up. The incidence of new-onset diabetes was the highest, 41.0%, among those subjects who were non-dippers (their systolic BP declined <10% from daytime to nighttime) in the baseline and also in the follow-up study, while the incidence of diabetes was 19.6% in the dipper - dipper (a nighttime decline of systolic BP 10% or more) group (p = 0.003). The difference remained statistically significant after adjustment with age, sex, body mass index, fasting glucose, triglycerides, and insulin levels, smoking status, 24-h mean systolic BP, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, estimated glomerular filtration and diuretics use. In logistic regression analysis, the non-dipper - non-dippers were at higher risk of diabetes compared with dipper - dipper group (OR = 2.27, 95% CI: 1.13-4.56, p = 0.022). Conclusions: Our prospective study shows that there is an independent association between non-dipping BP pattern and the incidence of diabetes in a 21-year follow-up.