Risk factors associated with portal vein thrombosis in liver cirrhosis: A case-control study

To build a predictive model for PVT in cirrhotic patients.

A single centre case-control study was carried out. From the database of 1512 cirrhotic patients 94 with newly diagnosed PVT based on contrast-enhanced computed tomography were referred to the Case group. Malignant PVT was an exclusion criterion. Patients without PVT were stratified and matched according to sex, age and etiology of cirrhosis; case-control ratio was 1 : 3-4. The prevalence of PVT in the database, clinical, laboratory, instrumental parameters of the groups were evaluated. Logistic regression model was used to estimate association between variables and PVT.

The overall prevalence of PVT was 6.2% with the highest rates among the patients with HBV infection - 16.7%, nonalcoholic steatohepatitis - 15.6%, alcohol abuse in combination with HCV infection - 11.7%. The best predictive model included variables: Child-Pugh classes B-C (coefficient of regression β=1.853, р=0.001), ascites (β=0.460, р=0.003), hepatocellular carcinoma without vascular invasion (β=2.126, р=0.0001), endoscopic band ligation (β=0.774, р=0.003), azygoportal disconnection (β=2.734, р=0.001), portal hypertensive gastropathy (β=0.793, р=0.017), portal vein diameter (β=0.203, р=0.004), and local factors - ulcerative colitis flare, Clostridium difficile enterocolitis, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, colorectal cancer, splenectomy, cholecystectomy (β=2.075, р=0.017). The model had accuracy 85.8% (95% CI 81.7-89.4%), sensitivity - 55.1% (95% CI 43.4-66.4%), specificity - 95% (95% CI 91.6-97.3%), and AUC - 0.871 (95% CI 0.826-0.916).

Child-Pugh classes B-C, severe portal hypertension, hepatocellular carcinoma without vascular invasion, and local factors were estimated as risk factors of PVT in cirrhotic patients.