Predicting progression to treatment using the Fagerström score in a free NHS smoking cessation programme

A free, national smoking cessation service for adults based on behavioural and pharmaceutical support in Wales, UK. To establish whether the Fagerström score at the assessment session could be used to predict subsequent treatment attendance. Non-attendance affects the individual's health and the efficiency of the service. Anonymised data from 39 967 Stop Smoking Wales assessment session attendees were assessed using logistic regression. The outcome variable was subsequent attendance/non-attendance for at least one treatment session. Fagerström scores were grouped into 'very low' (0-2), 'low' (3-4), 'medium' (5) and 'high' (6-10). People with medium (OR 1.15, 95%CI 1.08-1.24) or low Fagerström scores (OR 1.07, 95%CI 1.00-1.14) were more likely to attend treatment sessions than people with very low (OR 1.03, 95%CI 0.94-1.12) or high (baseline) Fagerström scores. The final model comprised nine other statistically significant covariates: current age, sex, residential deprivation level, number of previous quit attempts, type of appointment (group or one-to-one), time of appointment, appointment season, time spent waiting for an appointment and distance from home to the clinic. The Fagerström score at the assessment session could be used to identify smokers at an increased risk of not attending subsequent treatment. Further research is required to evaluate the impact of targeting those with the highest and lowest Fagerström scores at the assessment session upon treatment attendance. .