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Formula for calculating vaccine profitability.

J L Carrasco, R Lardinois

|June 1, 1987

Summary

A new formula calculates vaccination campaign profitability based on factors like attack rates, costs, and vaccine efficacy over time. It shows that currency values and discount rates do not impact profitability when vaccination proportions remain constant.

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Area of Science:

Public Health
Health Economics
Epidemiology

Background:

Vaccination campaigns are crucial for disease prevention.
Assessing the economic viability of vaccination programs is essential for resource allocation.
Understanding the long-term profitability of vaccines informs public health policy.

Purpose of the Study:

To develop a mathematical formula for calculating the profitability of vaccination campaigns.
To identify key factors influencing vaccination campaign profitability over time.
To analyze the impact of various parameters on the economic return of vaccines.

Main Methods:

Development of a mathematical model to assess vaccination campaign profitability.
Inclusion of variables such as annual attack rates, costs, vaccine price, efficacy, and years of immunity.
Analysis of factors affecting profitability and those that do not.

Main Results:

Profitability is directly influenced by annual attack rates, associated costs, vaccine price, efficacy, and the duration of post-vaccination immunity.
Factors like local currency values, annual discount rates, and absolute vaccine numbers do not affect profitability under specific conditions.
The formula provides a framework for evaluating the economic impact of different vaccination strategies.

Conclusions:

The developed formula offers a robust method for economic evaluation of vaccination campaigns.
Understanding the determinants of profitability aids in optimizing vaccine investments and policies.
The findings are applicable to various vaccines, including those for hepatitis B and measles.

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