Climate impacts on long-term silage maize yield in Germany

Area of Science:

• Agricultural Science
• Climate Science
• Environmental Science

Background:

• Climate change poses a significant threat to agricultural productivity globally.
• Silage maize is a crucial crop for animal feed in Germany.
• Understanding long-term yield variations is essential for food security and agricultural planning.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess the impact of climate change on long-term mean silage maize yield in Germany.
• To identify key climatic factors driving projected yield changes.
• To quantify potential yield reductions under future climate scenarios.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a statistical crop model at the county level in Germany.
• Incorporated sub-seasonal soil moisture (June, August) and climate variables (July precipitation, temperature).
• Forced the crop model using soil moisture simulated by the mesoscale Hydrologic Model, driven by five regional climate models (RCMs).

Main Results:

• Projected average yield reductions of -120 to -1050 kg/hectare/annum for 2021-2050 compared to 1971-2000.
• Simulated multi-model yield decreases ranging from -370 to -3910 kg/hectare/annum by 2070-2099.
• Identified July temperature and August soil moisture anomalies as primary drivers of projected yield anomalies.

Conclusions:

• The statistical crop model effectively projects long-term mean yield changes.
• Future silage maize yields in Germany are vulnerable to climate change impacts.
• Adaptation strategies and CO2 fertilization effects, not included in this model, could potentially mitigate some yield losses.