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Time dynamics and invariant subnetwork structures in the world cereals trade network
Marie-Cécile Dupas1, José Halloy1, Petros Chatzimpiros1
1Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire des Energies de Demain (LIED), Université Paris Diderot, Paris, France.
Plos One
|May 23, 2019
Summary
Global cereal trade networks reveal stable backbone and transient flows. Analysis of 28 years of trade data shows distinct subnetworks crucial for understanding food security dynamics.
Area of Science:
- Agricultural Economics
- Network Science
- Global Food Security
Background:
- Industrial agriculture has increased global food trade, impacting food security by redistributing surpluses.
- Analyzing agricultural product flows offers insights into international trade interactions and network structures.
Purpose of the Study:
- To model global cereal trade using a complex network approach.
- To analyze the changing topology and degree distribution of world cereal trade networks from 1986 to 2013.
Main Methods:
- Utilized detailed trade matrices from FAO for the period 1986-2013.
- Applied a weighted and directed network approach where countries are nodes and trade flows are links.
- Distinguished three subnetworks based on temporal trade stability: backbone, intermediate, and transient.
Main Results:
- Identified three distinct subnetworks with unique properties and contributions to total trade.
- The backbone network, comprising uninterrupted trades, accounts for two-thirds of traded mass and is scale-free.
- Transient subnetworks (1-2 years activity) show random growth and minimal traded mass, while intermediate subnetworks exhibit exponential growth.
Conclusions:
- The topology of each subnetwork is time-invariant, providing stable structural insights.
- Identifying these invariant network structures is vital for future agri-food network modeling.
- This network analysis framework can assess the resilience of global food trade to disruptions.
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