Culturing the Uncultured: Risk versus Reward

Area of Science:

• Microbiology
• Evolutionary Biology
• Ecology

Background:

• Axenic cultures are vital for studying microbial phenotype, ecology, and evolution.
• Despite their value, most microbial isolates originate from a few phylogenetic groups and environments.
• New cultivation efforts are needed to expand the diversity of available microbial cultures.

Purpose of the Study:

• To propose a framework for evaluating the investment in microbial isolation projects.
• To incorporate risk and reward assessment into the design of cultivation experiments.
• To identify scenarios where microbial isolation represents a sound scientific investment.

Main Methods:

• Conceptual framework based on expected value theory.
• Analysis of risks and rewards associated with isolating new microorganisms.
• Evaluation of experimental design for cultivation projects.

Main Results:

• Microbial isolation projects can be rationally assessed using expected value.
• Constraining cultivation probabilities and isolate values aids experimental design.
• Numerous scenarios exist where isolation efforts yield positive expected value.

Conclusions:

• Investing in microbial isolation can be strategically managed using expected value.
• A quantitative approach can optimize resource allocation for discovering novel microbes.
• This framework supports sound investment in expanding microbial culture collections for scientific advancement.