Projected oropharyngeal carcinoma incidence among middle-aged US men
Li Xu1, Kristina R Dahlstrom1, David R Lairson2
1Department of Head and Neck Surgery, The University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas.
Background:
The incidence of oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) is rapidly increasing. This study aimed to describe the temporal trends and projection of OPC incidence.
Methods:
Incidence data were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and trends were calculated using the joinpoint regression model.
Results:
The incidence of OPC in the US population significantly increased by 1.94% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.65%-2.23%) per year from 2000 to 2015. OPC was projected to increase continuously over the next 30 years, with more than half of projected new OPC cases being found in non-Hispanic white men aged 55-69 years. By 2045, OPC will become the third most common cancer in 55-69-year-old non-Hispanic white men in the United States.
Conclusions:
The incidence of OPC is expected to increase substantially in the US population, particularly among middle-aged non-Hispanic white men. Our projections may have implications for policy makers.
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