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Population persistence under high mutation rate: From evolutionary rescue to lethal mutagenesis.

Yoann Anciaux1, Amaury Lambert2,3, Ophélie Ronce4

  • 1Bioinformatics Research Center (BiRC), Aarhus University, C.F. Møllers Allé 8, 8000, Aarhus, Denmark.

Evolution; International Journal of Organic Evolution
|May 29, 2019
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Summary

Evolutionary rescue from severe stress is possible but can fail if mutation rates increase too much, leading to extinction via lethal mutagenesis. This research explores how mutation rates impact population survival and treatment effectiveness.

Keywords:
Distribution of extinction timesFisher's geometric modelevolutionary rescueextinction dynamicsfitness landscapelethal mutagenesis

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Area of Science:

  • Evolutionary Biology
  • Population Genetics
  • Theoretical Ecology

Background:

  • Populations can genetically adapt to severe stress, a process known as evolutionary rescue.
  • Previous models assumed rescue relies on a single mutation, limiting adaptation to high stress levels.
  • Increasing mutation rates may enhance adaptation but also pose risks.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate evolutionary rescue in asexual populations with high mutation rates.
  • To analyze the impact of accumulated mutations on population survival and extinction times.
  • To evaluate the effectiveness of treatments against adaptable pathogens.

Main Methods:

  • Combined stochastic demography with Fisher's geometric model of adaptation.
  • Modeled populations with high mutation rates where multiple mutations can accumulate.
  • Predicted extinction probability and extinction time distributions.
  • Compared accuracy of different approximations across a range of mutation rates.

Main Results:

  • Moderate increases in mutation rates can favor evolutionary rescue.
  • Very high mutation rates can lead to population extinction due to lethal mutagenesis (accumulation of deleterious mutations).
  • The study predicts both extinction probability and extinction time distributions.

Conclusions:

  • Evolutionary rescue is sensitive to mutation rates, with a threshold beyond which it becomes detrimental.
  • Understanding mutation rate effects is crucial for designing "evolution-proof" treatments against pathogens.
  • Lethal mutagenesis presents a significant extinction risk for highly mutable populations.