Common Risk Stratification of Hospital and Ambulatory Patients

The care of patients with multiple chronic conditions and those near the end-of-life is often compromised by miscommunications among the healthcare teams. These might be improved by using common risk strata for both hospital and ambulatory settings. We developed, validated, and implemented an all-payer ambulatory risk stratification based on the patients' predicted probability of dying within 30 days, for a large multispecialty practice. Strata had comparable 30-day mortality rates to hospital strata already in use. The high-risk ambulatory strata contained less than 20% of the ambulatory population yet captured 85% of those with 3 or more comorbidities, more than 80% of those who would die 30 or 180 days from the date of scoring, and two-thirds of those with a nonsurgical hospitalization within the next 30 days. We provide examples how the practice and partner hospital have begun to use this common framework for their clinical care model.