A Scenario Approach to the Simonshaven Case

Area of Science:

• Decision Science
• Environmental Planning

Background:

• The need for robust methods to handle complex, uncertain situations in planning and decision-making.
• Existing approaches may lack flexibility in exploring future possibilities.

Purpose of the Study:

• To present and detail a scenario approach for structured decision-making.
• To illustrate the practical application of the scenario approach using a specific case study (Simonshaven).
• To evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the scenario approach in comparison to alternatives.

Main Methods:

• Development of a conceptual framework for the scenario approach.
• Application of the approach to the Simonshaven case study with illustrative examples.
• Comparative analysis against argumentation-based and probabilistic methods.

Main Results:

• The scenario approach provides a structured method for outlining, assessing, and comparing future possibilities.
• The Simonshaven case illustrates the practical utility and application of the scenario approach.
• Identified key strengths and weaknesses of the scenario approach relative to other decision-making frameworks.

Conclusions:

• The scenario approach offers a valuable framework for navigating uncertainty in complex decision-making.
• The approach demonstrates practical applicability and provides criteria for scenario assessment.
• Further research can refine the comparison between scenario-based and other decision-making methodologies.