Seven-Year Trajectories of Depressive Symptoms and Their Predictors Among Older Americans

Objective: This study examined the trajectories of depressive symptoms and associated factors in older adults using an enhanced group-based trajectory modeling. Method: The study sample consisted of 7,573 adults aged ≥65 years from the National Health and Aging Trends Study (Rounds 1-7). Depressive trajectories were estimated using a group-based trajectory modeling accounting for nonrandom attrition. Results: A four-trajectory model including "persistently low" (77.7%), "increasing" (7.9%), "declining," (5.5%), and "persistently high" (8.9%) was the best fit using methods accounting for nonrandom attrition. In comparison, methods not accounting for attrition estimated that only 3.2% of older adults were on the "persistently high" trajectory. There were significant differences in depressive trajectories by age, race/ethnicity, sex, physical, and cognitive functioning, and social connections. Discussion: Persistently high depressive symptoms affected a larger proportion of older adults than previously estimated. Depression had a more long-term and increasing course in the oldest-old.