Burden of renal cancer in Nordic countries

Aim: To report the current incidence and estimate the future burden of renal cancer in Nordic countries until the year 2040.Methods: Most recent incidence and prevalence data for renal cancer were retrieved using the NORDCAN database (years 2011-2015). Publicly available population counts (years 2011-2015) and estimates (years 2019-2040) provided from the official statistics bureaus of the Nordic countries were used. Averaged country-specific age- and gender-stratified estimates were calculated using data from years 2011-2015 and projected into 2019 (current estimates) and for every year until 2040 (future estimates). Sensitivity analyses were made to evaluate the consequences of increases or decreases in changes in incident rates.Results: Incidence and prevalence of renal cancer increased with age and were higher among males. This study estimates incidence and prevalence in 2019 to, respectively, 910 and 5,747 for Denmark, 1,039 and 8,043 for Finland, 67 and 549 for Iceland, 914 and 6,481 for Norway, and 1,255 and 10,695 for Sweden. In all Nordic countries, the incidence and prevalence is expected to increase due to an aging population. An increasing proportion of patients will be 70 years or above.Conclusions: In Nordic countries, the burden of renal cancer will increase during the next years and a larger proportion of patients will be elderly. These demographic changes highlight the need for cancer prevention, innovation in minimally invasive approaches and focus on active surveillance strategies.