Predicting gestational personal exposure to PM_2.5 from satellite-driven ambient concentrations in Shanghai

It has been widely reported that gestational exposure to fine particulate matters (PM_2.5) is associated with a series of adverse birth outcomes. However, the discrepancy between ambient PM_2.5 concentrations and personal PM_2.5 exposure would significantly affect the estimation of exposure-response relationship.

Our study aimed to predict gestational personal exposure to PM_2.5 from the satellite-driven ambient concentrations and analyze the influence of other potential determinants.

We collected 762 72-h personal exposure samples from a panel of 329 pregnant women in Shanghai, China as well as their time-activity patterns from Feb 2017 to Jun 2018. We established an ambient PM_2.5 model based on MAIAC AOD at 1 km resolution, then used its output as a major predictor to develop a personal exposure model.

Our ambient PM_2.5 model yielded a cross-validation R² of 0.96. Personal PM_2.5 exposure levels were almost identical to the corresponding ambient concentrations. After adjusting for time-activity patterns and meteorological factors, our personal exposure has a CV R² of 0.76.

We established a prediction model for gestational personal exposure to PM_2.5 from satellite-based ambient concentrations and provided a methodological reference for further epidemiological studies.