Structural prediction of RNA switches using conditional base-pair probabilities

An RNA switch triggers biological functions by toggling between two conformations. RNA switches include bacterial riboswitches, where ligand binding can stabilize a bound structure. For RNAs with only one stable structure, structural prediction usually just requires a straightforward free energy minimization, but for an RNA switch, the prediction of a less stable alternative structure is often computationally costly and even problematic. The current sampling-clustering method predicts stable and alternative structures by partitioning structures sampled from the energy landscape into two clusters, but it is very time-consuming. Instead, we predict the alternative structure of an RNA switch from conditional probability calculations within the energy landscape. First, our method excludes base pairs related to the most stable structure in the energy landscape. Then, it detects stable stems ("seeds") in the remaining landscape. Finally, it folds an alternative structure prediction around a seed. While having comparable riboswitch classification performance, the conditional-probability computations had fewer adjustable parameters, offered greater predictive flexibility, and were more than one thousand times faster than the sampling step alone in sampling-clustering predictions, the competing standard. Overall, the described approach helps traverse thermodynamically improbable energy landscapes to find biologically significant substructures and structures rapidly and effectively.