Climate change will decrease the range size of snake species under negligible protection in the Brazilian Atlantic...

Area of Science:

• Ecology and conservation biology
• Herpetology
• Climate change science

Background:

• Reptiles are highly sensitive to climate change, with alterations in temperature and rainfall impacting their reproduction.
• Snake populations in the Atlantic Forest hotspot face significant threats due to climate-induced environmental shifts.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate the impact of climate change on suitable habitats for snakes in the Atlantic Forest.
• To analyze how climate change affects snake species richness and turnover, considering reproductive strategies (oviparous vs. viviparous).
• To project the future threat status of snake species and assess the efficacy of protected areas.

Main Methods:

• Species distribution modeling under future climate scenarios.
• Analysis of species richness and temporal turnover patterns.
• Evaluation of protected area network effectiveness through overlap analysis and future species gain/loss projections.

Main Results:

• A significant contraction of climatically suitable ranges for most snake species is predicted.
• High temporal species turnover is expected, particularly in western and northeastern Atlantic Forest edges, especially for oviparous snakes.
• By 2080, 73.6% of oviparous and 67.6% of viviparous species may lose over half their range.
• Current protected areas demonstrate limited capacity to safeguard snake populations, with most predicted to lose species by century's end.

Conclusions:

• Climate change poses a severe threat to snake populations in the Atlantic Forest, with oviparous species showing greater vulnerability.
• The existing protected area network is insufficient to ensure future snake conservation.
• Urgent conservation actions, including establishing new or redesigning protected areas, are critical to maximize species occupancy under warming scenarios.