Models for the rates of pupal development, fat consumption and mortality in tsetse (Glossina spp)

Environmental temperature is an important driver of the population dynamics of tsetse (Glossina spp) because the fly's immature stages are particularly vulnerable to temperatures (T) outside the range T = 16-32°C. Laboratory experiments carried out 50 years ago provide extensive measures of temperature-dependent rates of development, fat consumption and mortality in tsetse pupae. We improve on the models originally fitted to these data, providing better parameter estimates for use in population modelling. A composite function accurately models rates of pupal development for T = 8-32°C. Pupal duration can be estimated by summing the temperature-dependent daily percentage of development completed. Fat consumption is modelled as a logistic function of temperature; the total fat consumed during pupal development takes a minimum for T ≈ 25°C. Pupae experiencing constant temperatures <16°C exhaust their fat reserves before they complete development. At high temperatures, direct effects kill the pupae before fat stores are exhausted. The relationship between pupal mortality and temperature is well described by the sum of two exponential functions. Summing daily mortality rates over the whole pupal period does not reliably predict overall mortality. Mortality is more strongly correlated with the mean temperature experienced over pupal life or, for T ≤ 30°C, the fat consumption during this period. The new results will be particularly useful in the construction of various models for tsetse population dynamics, and will have particular relevance for agent-based models where the lives of individual tsetse are simulated using a daily time step.