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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Jan 23, 2026

Methods for Comparing Nutrients in Beebread Made by Africanized and European Honey Bees and the Effects on Hemolymph Protein Titers
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Predictability of European winter 2016/2017.

Nick Dunstone1, Adam A Scaife1,2, Craig MacLachlan1

  • 1Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter UK.

Atmospheric Science Letters : ASL
|June 14, 2019
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Seasonal forecasts accurately predicted the 2016/2017 winter drought in Central Europe and the UK. This was driven by high pressure over North-West Europe, linked to tropical Atlantic rainfall anomalies and Rossby waves, showing predictability beyond the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Keywords:
2016/2017European winterNAOseasonal climate prediction

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Area of Science:

  • Meteorology
  • Climate Science
  • Atmospheric Science

Background:

  • The winter of 2016/2017 experienced record-low precipitation in Central Europe and the UK.
  • This drought was associated with a persistent high-pressure system over North-Western Europe, blocking typical atmospheric circulation patterns.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess the skill of seasonal forecasts in predicting the anomalous atmospheric circulation during the 2016/2017 winter.
  • To investigate the drivers of the observed high-pressure system and its link to drought conditions.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of large ensembles of simulated winters to compare with observed circulation patterns.
  • Utilizing two independent datasets and methods to examine the drivers of the circulation anomaly.
  • Investigating the role of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and other potential teleconnections.

Main Results:

  • Seasonal forecasts initiated in November successfully predicted the high-pressure anomaly over North-Western Europe.
  • The observed circulation pattern closely matched simulations of the driest European winters.
  • Evidence suggests a Rossby Wave, originating from tropical Atlantic rainfall anomalies, influenced the circulation.

Conclusions:

  • Seasonal weather forecasts demonstrated skill in predicting the European drought event, independent of the North Atlantic Oscillation.
  • The study highlights the potential for predicting extreme weather events through understanding Rossby Wave dynamics and tropical influences.