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Predictability of European winter 2016/2017
Nick Dunstone1, Adam A Scaife1,2, Craig MacLachlan1
1Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter UK.
Atmospheric Science Letters : ASL
|June 14, 2019
Summary
Seasonal forecasts accurately predicted the 2016/2017 winter drought in Central Europe and the UK. This was driven by high pressure over North-West Europe, linked to tropical Atlantic rainfall anomalies and Rossby waves, showing predictability beyond the North Atlantic Oscillation.
Area of Science:
- Meteorology
- Climate Science
- Atmospheric Science
Background:
- The winter of 2016/2017 experienced record-low precipitation in Central Europe and the UK.
- This drought was associated with a persistent high-pressure system over North-Western Europe, blocking typical atmospheric circulation patterns.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the skill of seasonal forecasts in predicting the anomalous atmospheric circulation during the 2016/2017 winter.
- To investigate the drivers of the observed high-pressure system and its link to drought conditions.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of large ensembles of simulated winters to compare with observed circulation patterns.
- Utilizing two independent datasets and methods to examine the drivers of the circulation anomaly.
- Investigating the role of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and other potential teleconnections.
Main Results:
- Seasonal forecasts initiated in November successfully predicted the high-pressure anomaly over North-Western Europe.
- The observed circulation pattern closely matched simulations of the driest European winters.
- Evidence suggests a Rossby Wave, originating from tropical Atlantic rainfall anomalies, influenced the circulation.
Conclusions:
- Seasonal weather forecasts demonstrated skill in predicting the European drought event, independent of the North Atlantic Oscillation.
- The study highlights the potential for predicting extreme weather events through understanding Rossby Wave dynamics and tropical influences.
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