Development of a predictive model for stromal content in prostate cancer samples to improve signature performance

Prostate cancer is heterogeneous in both cellular composition and patient outcome, and development of biomarker signatures to distinguish indolent from aggressive tumours is a high priority. Stroma plays an important role during prostate cancer progression and undergoes histological and transcriptional changes associated with disease. However, identification and validation of stromal markers is limited by a lack of datasets with defined stromal/tumour ratio. We have developed a prostate-selective signature to estimate the stromal content in cancer samples of mixed cellular composition. We identified stromal-specific markers from transcriptomic datasets of developmental prostate mesenchyme and prostate cancer stroma. These were experimentally validated in cell lines, datasets of known stromal content, and by immunohistochemistry in tissue samples to verify stromal-specific expression. Linear models based upon six transcripts were able to infer the stromal content and estimate stromal composition in mixed tissues. The best model had a coefficient of determination R² of 0.67. Application of our stromal content estimation model in various prostate cancer datasets led to improved performance of stromal predictive signatures for disease progression and metastasis. The stromal content of prostate tumours varies considerably; consequently, deconvolution of stromal proportion may yield better results than tumour cell deconvolution. We suggest that adjusting expression data for cell composition will improve stromal signature performance and lead to better prognosis and stratification of men with prostate cancer. © 2019 The Authors. The Journal of Pathology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland.