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Bilateral international migration flow estimates for 200 countries.

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Estimating international migration flows is crucial. Two demographic accounting methods consistently outperform others when using migrant stock data for bilateral flow estimations.

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Area of Science:

  • Demography
  • International Migration Studies
  • Quantitative Social Science

Background:

  • Understanding international migration patterns requires accurate data on migration flows and stocks.
  • Many countries lack published data on bilateral migration flows, hindering analysis and policy development.
  • Existing methods for estimating bilateral migration flows often rely on migrant stock data.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To apply and compare six recently proposed methods for estimating bilateral migration flows.
  • To validate these estimation methods by correlating their outputs with available reported data.
  • To identify the most reliable methods for estimating international migration flows.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized the latest available migrant stock data from the World Bank and United Nations.
  • Applied six distinct methods to estimate five-year bilateral migration flows between 1990 and 2015.
  • Correlated the estimated migration measures from each method against reported data for validation.

Main Results:

  • The accuracy of the estimated migration flows varied significantly across different methods, migration measures, geographical regions, and time periods.
  • Systematic validation of these estimation techniques has been largely overlooked in previous research.
  • Two methods employing a closed demographic accounting approach demonstrated superior and consistent performance compared to the other four methods.

Conclusions:

  • Closed demographic accounting methods offer a more reliable approach for estimating bilateral international migration flows.
  • The findings provide crucial insights for improving the accuracy of migration data and relevant international development agendas.
  • Further research should focus on refining and validating estimation techniques for migration data.