Baseline 3D-ADC outperforms 2D-ADC in predicting response to treatment in patients with colorectal liver metastases

To examine the value of baseline 3D-ADC and to predict short-term response to treatment in patients with hepatic colorectal metastases (CLMs).

Liver MR images of 546 patients with CLMs (2008-2015) were reviewed retrospectively and 68 patients fulfilled inclusion criteria. Patients had received systemic chemotherapy (n = 17), hepatic trans-arterial chemoembolization or TACE (n = 34), and ⁹⁰Y radioembolization (n = 17). Baseline (pre-treatment) 3D-ADC (volumetric) of metastatic lesions was calculated employing prototype software. RECIST 1.1 was used to assess short-term response to treatment. Prediction of response to treatment by baseline 3D-ADC and 2D-ADC (ROI-based) was also compared in all patients.

Partial response to treatment (minimum 30% decrease in tumor largest transverse diameter) was seen in 35.3% of patients; 41.2% with systemic chemotherapy, 32.4% with TACE, and 35.3% with ⁹⁰Y radioembolization (p = 0.82). Median baseline 3D-ADC was significantly lower in responding than in nonresponding lesions. Area under the curve (AUC) of 3D-ADC was 0.90 in ⁹⁰Y radioembolization patients, 0.88 in TACE patients, and 0.77 in systemic chemotherapy patients (p < 0.01). Optimal prediction was observed with the 10th percentile of ADC (1006 × 10^-6 mm²/s), yielding sensitivity and specificity of 77.4% and 91.3%, respectively. 3D-ADC outperformed 2D-ADC in predicting response to treatment (AUC; 0.86 vs. 0.71; p < 0.001).

Baseline 3D-ADC is a highly specific biomarker in predicting partial short-term response to treatment in hepatic CLMs.

• Baseline 3D-ADC is a highly specific biomarker in predicting response to different treatments in hepatic CLMs. • The prediction level of baseline ADC is better for⁹⁰Y radioembolization than for systemic chemotherapy/TACE in hepatic CLMs. • 3D-ADC outperforms 2D-ADC in predicting short-term response to treatment in hepatic CLMs.