Randomness in the Bedroom: There Is No Evidence for Fertility Control in Pre-Industrial England
Gregory Clark1,2,3, Neil Cummins4,5
1Department of Economics, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA, USA.
Abstract:
Overturning a generation of research, Cinnirella et al. Demography, 54, 413-436 (2017) found strong parity-dependent fertility control in pre-Industrial England 1540-1850. We show that their result is an unfortunate artifact of their statistical method, relying on mother fixed effects, which contradicts basic biological possibilities for fecundity. These impossible parity effects also appear with simulated fertility data that by design have no parity control. We conclude that estimating parity control using mother fixed effects is in no way feasible. We also show, using the Cambridge Group data that Cinnirella et al. used, that there is no sign of parity-dependent fertility control in English marriages before 1850.
Related Concept Videos
The Evidence for Evolution
Fertilization
In Vitro Fertilization
The IVF process begins with ovarian stimulation, during which reproductive endocrinologists prescribe hormonal medications to stimulate the ovaries to produce multiple eggs instead of the single...
Random Error
Random Variables
Uppercase letters such as X or Y denote a random variable. Lowercase letters like x or y denote the value of a random variable. If X is a random variable, then X is written in words, and x is given as a number.
For example, let X = the...
Randomized Experiments
Simple randomization
Simple...


