Movement of a Heliconius hybrid zone over 30 years: A Bayesian approach

Hybrid zones have long been of interest to biologists as natural laboratories where we can gain insight into the processes of adaptation and speciation. Repeated sampling of individual hybrid zones has been particularly useful in elucidating the dynamic balance between selection and dispersal that maintains most hybrid zones. Here, we revisit a hybrid zone between Heliconius erato butterflies in Panamá for a third time over more than 30 years. We combine a novel Bayesian extension of stepped-cline hybrid zone models with environmental data to understand the genetic and environmental causes of cline dynamics in this species. The cline has continued to move west, likely due to dominance drive, but has slowed and broadened. Environmental analyses suggest that widespread deforestation in Panamá could be leading to decreased avian predation and relaxed selection, causing the observed changes in cline dynamics.