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Communicating uncertainty about facts, numbers and science
Anne Marthe van der Bles1,2, Sander van der Linden1,2, Alexandra L J Freeman1
1Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication, Department of Pure Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Royal Society Open Science
|June 21, 2019
Summary
Communicating uncertainty in science can be beneficial, not detrimental. This review offers a framework for effectively conveying epistemic uncertainty to diverse audiences.
Area of Science:
- Interdisciplinary review
- Statistics and psychology
Background:
- Communicating epistemic uncertainty is crucial in an era of contested expertise.
- Empirical research on uncertainty communication is fragmented across disciplines.
Purpose of the Study:
- To structure and summarize current practices and research in uncertainty communication.
- To develop a framework for understanding and communicating epistemic uncertainty.
Main Methods:
- Interdisciplinary literature review combining statistical and psychological perspectives.
- Development of a framework categorizing objects (facts, numbers, science) and levels (direct, indirect) of uncertainty.
- Analysis of current communication practices and existing literature on audience impact.
Main Results:
- Identified three objects and two levels of uncertainty.
- Cataloged nine expressions of direct uncertainty and methods for codifying indirect uncertainty.
- Found limited evidence suggesting that communicating uncertainty does not necessarily harm audience perception, though impact varies.
Conclusions:
- Communicating epistemic uncertainty effectively requires a structured approach.
- Impact of uncertainty communication depends on individual and format variations.
- Provides guidance for communicators and researchers in this under-explored field.
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