Prediction of dosimetric accuracy for VMAT plans using plan complexity parameters via machine learning

The dosimetric accuracies of volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) plans were predicted using plan complexity parameters via machine learning.

The dataset consisted of 600 cases of clinical VMAT plans from a single institution. The predictor variables (n = 28) for each plan included complexity parameters, machine type, and photon beam energy. Dosimetric measurements were performed using a helical diode array (ArcCHECK), and the dosimetric accuracy of the passing rates for a 5% dose difference (DD5%) and gamma index of 3%/3 mm (γ3%/3 mm) were predicted using three machine learning models: regression tree analysis (RTA), multiple regression analysis (MRA), and neural networks (NNs). First, the prediction models were applied to 500 cases of the VMAT plans. Then, the dosimetric accuracy was predicted using each model for the remaining 100 cases (evaluation dataset). The error between the predicted and measured passing rates was evaluated.

For the 600 cases, the mean ± standard deviation of the measured passing rates was 92.3% ± 9.1% and 96.8% ± 3.1% for DD5% and γ3%/3 mm, respectively. For the evaluation dataset, the mean ± standard deviation of the prediction errors for DD5% and γ3%/3 mm was 0.5% ± 3.0% and 0.6% ± 2.4% for RTA, 0.0% ± 2.9% and 0.5% ± 2.4% for MRA, and -0.2% ± 2.7% and -0.2% ± 2.1% for NN, respectively.

NNs performed slightly better than RTA and MRA in terms of prediction error. These findings may contribute to increasing the efficiency of patient-specific quality-assurance procedures.