Better Secondary Schooling Outcomes for Adolescents in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Projections of...

The purpose of this article was to identify effective interventions to reduce secondary school dropout rates, increase the quality of learning in secondary schools in developing countries, and estimate the cost and educational impact of a sustained program to implement a selection of these interventions.

Dropout risk is analyzed by multivariable regression using micro-datasets for 44 developing countries for which Demographic and Health Surveys are available. The analysis of interventions accesses recent meta-analyses of educational interventions in developing countries. We incorporate these results into a model of progression in secondary school-by grade, age, and gender, augmented by learning measures and by a facility to allow interventions to reduce dropout rates and improve learning-to estimate the impact and cost of a package of interventions out to 2030.

Poverty, female gender, and rural location are key risk factors for secondary school dropout. In terms of interventions, school proximity for rural students is critical. Better teaching both reduces dropout and improves learning, whereas instruction in the mother tongue improves also improves learning. Systematic implementation of nine interventions in the 44 countries,¹ costing US$10.5 per capita per annum, would increase secondary completion rates by about 25% and more than double the index of learning achieved by 2030, with the effects being more pronounced in low-income countries.

Powerful interventions are available to change the trajectory of schooling in developing countries but the costs are substantial, and a coordinated funding effort will be required.