Risk Factors for Misuse of Prescribed Opioids: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Increasing opioid prescribing has been linked to an epidemic of opioid misuse. Our objective is to synthesize the available evidence about patient-, prescriber-, medication-, and system-level risk factors for developing misuse among patients prescribed opioids for noncancer pain.

We performed a systematic search of the scientific and gray literature for studies reporting on risk factors for prescription opioid misuse. Two reviewers independently reviewed titles, abstracts, and full texts; extracted data; and assessed study quality. We excluded studies with greater than 50% cancer patients, palliative patients, and illicit opioid initiation. When possible, we synthesized the effect sizes of dichotomous risk factors and their associations with opioid misuse, using inverse-variance random-effects meta-analysis. We calculated the mean difference between opioid misusers and nonmisusers for continuous risk factors. When studies lacked homogeneity, we synthesized their results qualitatively.

Of 9,629 studies, 65 met our inclusion criteria. Among patients with outpatient opioid prescriptions, the following factors were associated with the development of misuse: any current or previous substance use (odds ratio [OR] 3.55; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.62 to 4.82), any mental health diagnosis (OR 2.45; 95% CI 1.91 to 3.15), younger age (OR 2.19; 95% CI 1.81 to 2.64), and male sex (OR 1.23; 95% CI 1.10 to 1.36).

Although clinicians should endeavor to offer alternative pain management strategies to all patients, those who are younger, are male patients, and report a history of or current substance use or mental health diagnoses were associated with a greater risk of developing opioid misuse. Clinicians should consider prioritizing alternative pain management strategies for these higher-risk patients.