Impact of PET/CT for Restaging Patients With Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer After Neoadjuvant Chemoradiation

A major challenge in identifying candidates for nonoperative management of locally advanced rectal cancer is predicting pathologic complete response (pCR) following chemoradiation. We evaluated pre- and post-CRT PET-CT imaging to predict pCR and prognosis in this set of patients undergoing resection after neoadjuvant therapy.

We retrospectively identified patients from 2002 to 2015 with locally advanced rectal cancer who underwent CRT, pre- and post-CRT PET-CT imaging, and resection. Univariate and multivariate analysis was performed and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were generated to evaluate the association of PET-CT characteristics with pCR and survival. ROC curves were generated to define optimal cutoff points for predictive PET-CT characteristics.

125 patients were included. pCR rate was 28%, and follow-up was 48 mo. On multivariable analysis, patients who had a pCR had lower median post-CRT maximal standardized uptake value (SUV_max) (3.2 versus 5.2, P = 0.009) and higher median %SUV decrease (72 versus 58%, P = 0.009). ROC curves were generated for %SUV_max decrease (AUC = 0.70) and post-CRT SUV (AUC = 0.69). Post-CRT SUV_max <4.3 and %SUV_max decrease of >66% were equally predictive of pCR with a sensitivity of 65%, specificity of 72%, PPV of 44%, and NPV of 86%. Median 5-y overall and relapse-free survival were improved for patients with post-CRT SUV <4.3 (OS: 86 versus 66%, P = 0.01; RFS: 75 versus 52%, P = 0.01) or %SUV decrease of >66% (OS, 82 versus 66%, P = 0.05; RFS, 75 versus 54%, P = 0.01).

PET/CT may be useful in identifying patients who did not achieve pCR, as well as overall survival in patients undergoing CRT for rectal cancer. Patients with a post-CRT SUV of >4.3 should be considered for operative management, as an estimated 86% of these patients will not have a pCR.