A predictive model of overall survival in patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer

Metastatic castration resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) is one of the most common cancers with a poor prognosis. To improve prognostic models of mCRPC, the Dialogue for Reverse Engineering Assessments and Methods (DREAM) Consortium organized a crowdsourced competition known as the Prostate Cancer DREAM Challenge. In the competition, data from four phase III clinical trials were utilized. A total of 1600 patients' clinical information across three of the trials was used to generate prognostic models, whereas one of the datasets (313 patients) was held out for blinded validation. The previously introduced prognostic model of overall survival of chemotherapy-naive mCRPC patients treated with docetaxel or prednisone (so called Halabi model) was used as a performance baseline. This paper presents the model developed by the team TYTDreamChallenge and its improved version to predict the prognosis of mCRPC patients within the first 30 months after starting the treatment based on available clinical features of each patient. In particular, by replacing our original larger set of eleven features with a smaller more carefully selected set of only five features the prediction performance on the independent validation cohort increased up to 5.4 percent. While the original TYTDreamChallenge model (iAUC=0.748) performed similarly as the performance-baseline model developed by Halabi et al. (iAUC=0.743), the improved post-challenge model (iAUC=0.779) showed markedly improved performance by using only PSA, ALP, AST, HB, and LESIONS as features. This highlights the importance of the selection of the clinical features when developing the predictive models.