Visualization and prediction of CRISPR incidence in microbial trait-space to identify drivers of antiviral immune strategy

Bacteria and archaea are locked in a near-constant battle with their viral pathogens. Despite previous mechanistic characterization of numerous prokaryotic defense strategies, the underlying ecological drivers of different strategies remain largely unknown and predicting which species will take which strategies remains a challenge. Here, we focus on the CRISPR immune strategy and develop a phylogenetically-corrected machine learning approach to build a predictive model of CRISPR incidence using data on over 100 traits across over 2600 species. We discover a strong but hitherto-unknown negative interaction between CRISPR and aerobicity, which we hypothesize may result from interference between CRISPR-associated proteins and non-homologous end-joining DNA repair due to oxidative stress. Our predictive model also quantitatively confirms previous observations of an association between CRISPR and temperature. Finally, we contrast the environmental associations of different CRISPR system types (I, II, III) and restriction modification systems, all of which act as intracellular immune systems.