Predictors and Risk Calculator of Early Unplanned Hospital Readmission Following Contemporary Self-Expanding...

Predictors of hospital readmissions and tools to predict readmissions after TAVR are scarce. Our objective was to identify predictors of early hospital readmission following TAVR in contemporary clinical practice and develop a risk calculator.

Patients with a contemporary self-expanding TAVR between 2015 and 2017 in the STS/ACC/TVT Registry™ database were included. Patients were divided into a derivation and validation cohort (2:1). A risk score was calculated using the derivation cohort based on multivariable predictors of 30-day unplanned readmissions and applied to the validation cohort.

A total of 10,345 TAVR patients at 350 centers were included. Unplanned 30-day hospital readmission was 9.2%. Patients with an early readmission had higher 30-day rates for mortality (2.3% vs. 0.8%, p ≪ 0.001), stroke (4.1% vs. 2.7% p = 0.009), major vascular complications (2.0% vs. 1.0%, p = 0.003) and new pacemaker implantation (25.7% vs. 18.6%, p ≪ 0.001). Multivariable predictors of 30-day readmission included diabetes, atrial fibrillation, advanced heart failure symptoms, home oxygen, decreased 5-m gait speed or the inability to walk, serum creatinine ≫1.6 mg/dL, index hospitalization length of stay ≫5 days, major vascular complication and ≥ moderate post-procedure aortic or mitral valve regurgitation. Based on these predictors, we stratified 30-day readmission risk into low-, moderate- and high-risk subsets. There was a 2.5× difference in readmission rates between the low- (5.8%) and high-risk subsets (14.6%).

We stratified the risk of early hospital readmission after TAVR based on a simple scoring system. This score may improve discharge planning centered on the individual's readmission risk.

Unplanned readmissions in the United States are prevalent and costly accounting for $41.3 billion in annual hospital payments and are associated with adverse clinical outcomes. We found that diabetes, atrial fibrillation, advanced heart failure symptoms, home oxygen, frailty, acute kidney injury, prolonged hospitalization, major vascular complications, and moderate or worse post-procedure aortic or mitral valve regurgitation predicted of 30-day readmission following self-expanding TAVR. This information may improve discharge planning centered on each patient's readmission risk.